SAN DIEGO — For the first time, Democrats are in reach of holding every congressional seat in San Diego County.

But it all depends on North County, where several Democrats are vying to make it past the primary — and where a two-term Republican county supervisor poses their party’s toughest challenge in November.

Jim Desmond jumped into the crowded race for the redrawn 48th Congressional District, widely considered one of Congress’ most competitive races, last month after Rep. Darrell Issa decided not to run for re-election.

For months, Democrats relished the idea of taking on Issa in a district California voters recently let them redraw in their party’s favor. The longtime congressman is a close ally of President Donald Trump, and the midterm election is widely seen to favor Democrats because of public disapproval of the Trump administration.

In Desmond, Democrats could face a different kind of Republican, even though the incumbent has thrown his support behind him.

Desmond has held elected office in North County for more than two decades, serving as San Marcos mayor from 2006 to 2018 and as a county supervisor since. He has sought to cultivate a common-sense reputation and often inveighed against Democratic policies, from California’s high gasoline taxes to environmental regulations.

Even as his party lost seats on the Board of Supervisors, voters still rewarded him. In 2022, he won re-election with 60% of the vote in a district where Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 5 percentage points.

That’s similar to the advantage Democrats now hold in the congressional seat he’s seeking, which now stretches north from San Marcos and Vista through Temecula and Hemet into the Democratic stronghold of Palm Springs.

Despite the district’s newly Democratic tilt, Desmond isn’t shying away from his support for Trump. In an interview with The San Diego Union-Tribune, he endorsed some of Trump’s more controversial efforts — including ending birthright citizenship.

“I support the fact that he shut down the border. I support the fact that he’s trying to lower taxes. I support the fact that somebody had to step up and take on Iran,” he said, though he noted Trump has “a different style than I do in dealing with issues.”

Desmond is betting on his local record to give him an edge. That includes supporting affordable housing development in San Marcos and championing the expansion of behavioral health centers in his district.

“I’ve got more of the grassroots,” he said. “I’ve got a proven record.”

But his longevity in local politics has still made him a polarizing figure disliked by Democrats.

Tiffany Boyd-Hodgson, a Democrat who lost the 2022 supervisor race to Desmond, called him “quite right-wing” despite his “nice-guy” demeanor.

“He comes across as a bumbling Columbo,” Boyd-Hodgson said. “But if you only pay attention to local politics a little bit, like most people do, it’s easy to buy.”

Vista Mayor John Franklin, who is running for his seat on the Board of Supervisors, thinks Desmond is “in a phenomenal position” in the congressional race. He argues that Desmond’s positions on lower real estate taxes, regulation and law enforcement will resonate with most voters.

“While Democrats are all angling to represent the narrowest slice of voters and the most liberal and woke positions, Jim is focused on the issues that unite us,” Franklin said.

On the Democratic side of the race, the candidates who have drawn the most support from donors are San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, Palm Springs economist Brandon Riker and Ammar Campa-Najjar, who has twice run for Congress and once run for Chula Vista mayor.

The contest has largely split key players and factions in California’s Democratic Party between Campa-Najjar and von Wilpert.

A dozen members of California’s congressional delegation back Campa-Najjar, the longtime partner of one of their own, Democratic Rep. Sara Jacobs. Other major bases of support for the party have endorsed von Wilpert, including a host of local Democratic clubs and labor unions such as the AFL-CIO, SEIU California and the California Teachers Association, along with Rep. Mark Takano, who represents a nearby area of Riverside County.

In an interview, Campa-Najjar dismissed the value of endorsements, calling them “inside-baseball establishment stuff.” In his previous unsuccessful campaigns for elected office, he points out that he has at different times made it past the primary “with and without that support” from the Democratic party.

“In my experience, they haven’t been determinative,” he said.

Von Wilpert says she is “proud to have the support of hardworking nurses, teachers, construction workers and firefighters in this race.”

“Working families urgently need leaders who fight for them, not dismiss them,” she said.

Despite high-profile support skewing toward Campa-Najjar and von Wilpert, Campa-Najjar and Riker had posted the highest fundraising totals by the end of last year.

Campa-Najjar had raised $809,000 and Riker $804,000, though Riker also personally loaned his campaign an additional $716,000, campaign disclosures show. Von Wilpert raised $520,000.

All three Democrats still trailed Desmond, who had raised $1.4 million last year.

More recent campaign fundraising and spending disclosures will be released later this month.

‘Somebody reasonable’

Mid-cycle redistricting didn’t just open up new opportunities for Democrats to flip Republican-held seats. It also aimed to make it easier for Democratic Rep. Mike Levin to win re-election.

Before jumping into the race for the neighboring 48th District last month, Desmond was running for Congress against Levin, who represents a swath of coastal North County and southern Orange County.

Before redistricting, that seat, the 49th Congressional District, had been the region’s most competitive, and with Desmond in the race, Republicans had vowed to direct considerable resources to beating Levin.

It wouldn’t have been the first time. But Levin won his last few elections with a comfortable 52% of the vote in 2024 and 53% in 2022. And in this election cycle, by the end of last year he had already raised more money than any other local congressional candidate — $2.2 million, disclosures show.

Proposition 50 drew more Democratic voters into his district, which now reaches farther inland to pick up San Diego neighborhoods such as Sorrento Valley and Mira Mesa and give Democrats a 4-point registration advantage instead of a 2-point one. The Cook Political Report considers the redrawn district solidly Democratic, meaning it’s not competitive.

The seat could still be a priority for Republicans in the region, but the party is waiting to see how much money Levin raises before deciding what they’re willing to spend, said Christian Martinez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Two Republicans are now running against Levin — Star Parker, a conservative columnist, and Armen Kurdian, a retired U.S. Navy captain.

Earlier this year, as plans solidified for Issa to forego a re-election run and for Desmond to switch districts, Kurdian says both personally asked him to challenge Levin. The former Vista City Council candidate dismisses the advantage Democrats now hold.

“I don’t even really concern myself with it, to be honest,” Kurdian said in an interview. “People just want somebody reasonable. People just want somebody to hear what they’re saying.”

Levin said he will be focusing on Republicans’ positions on the issues.

“These candidates now, what do they stand for?” the congressman said. “Everything I’ve seen from Republicans these days is cutting health care, cutting food assistance, and now starting a war that’s sending gas prices higher.”

Both Desmond and Kurdian have said higher gas prices are necessary costs of the war the U.S. began with Iran five weeks ago. In a TV interview last month, Desmond said high gas prices boiled down to “no pain, no gain.”

“It’s unfortunate that oil prices are going up,” he said. “Once we are able to get rid of (Iranian) nuclear capabilities, oil prices will come down again.”

Kurdian, whose mother’s family is from Iran, predicted in an interview last month that oil prices will “not go much farther up than they are.”

“If Iran would get a nuclear weapon and have a bomb, the effect on gas prices that we have now is probably nothing compared to what we would be seeing in the future with the kind of potential blackmail that Iran would be able to exercise on everyone,” Kurdian said.

Levin counters that the Trump administration has yet to articulate a concrete or consistent explanation of its goals in its war with Iran.

A progressive challenger

To improve Democrats’ chances in North County’s more competitive districts, last year’s redistricting reduced their advantage in the county’s three other congressional districts, by an average of 6 percentage points.

In the districts represented by Reps. Scott Peters, Jacobs and Juan Vargas — all Democrats — the party still holds double-digit registration advantages. The district where that tilt shifted most was Peters’, narrowing from 18 percentage points to 10 as the district reached farther into North and East counties from central San Diego.

The more conservative map has not deterred progressive Democrats from challenging the seven-term incumbent from the left.

Among them is Aishwarya “Sparky” Mitra, 24, a UC San Diego graduate and activist who hopes to advance past the primary by galvanizing support among young people and independents disaffected with the more moderate mainstream of the Democratic Party.

Mitra says Peters is “out of touch” with many organizers and activists. She points to his support for Israel and friendliness to the pharmaceutical industry.

“I’ve been in the community, and I’ve been really putting in the work for a while,” Mitra said.

In an interview, Peters said he expects to face a Republican in November, because the district still has a sizable share of conservative voters. In 2024, his opponent in the general election was a Republican unknown named Peter Bono.

Steve Cohen, the former news director of local TV station KUSI, is the only Republican running in this election. He could not be reached for comment.

Peters acknowledged that young people are frustrated with the political system but plans to campaign on what he has accomplished locally — federal money he has secured for the airport, the South County sewage crisis and the region’s military infrastructure.

“The campaign is going to be about serving San Diego,” Peters said. “I do believe that that’s mostly what people are concerned about.”

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