TAMPA. Fla. — As voter turnout numbers in the special election for Florida Senate District 14 came in Tuesday evening, Democrat Brian Nathan’s prospects looked dim.

Thousands more Republicans turned out compared to Democrats, according to unofficial figures released by Hillsborough County‘s elections office. One hour before the polls closed, prospectors on the betting platform Kalshi ranked former GOP state House Rep. Josie Tomkow’s chances of victory at more than 80%.

“You think to yourself, ‘Man, he’s going to have to do very well with independents in order to succeed in this race,’” said Tampa City Council member Luis Viera, who endorsed Nathan in the race.

Then the results started rolling in. In a western Hillsborough House district where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 22,000, Nathan was not only holding his own, but was leading Tomkow in the vote totals.

U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa, was out at dinner when she remembered to check the results. She‘d door-knocked for Nathan and raised awareness on social media for the election.

“I saw that he was way up,” Castor said. “I scared my colleagues with the way I jumped and yelled, ‘Oh my god.’”

Nathan had to improve upon former Vice President Kamala Harris’ performance by over seven points. With all votes tallied, he appears to have done just that.

He holds a lead of about 400 votes, or 0.5%, over Tomkow. That margin, if it holds once provisional ballots are counted, would prompt a recount, said Gerri Kramer, spokesperson for the Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections. Elections officers will determine Friday if a recount is necessary.

With another Democratic win in a red Palm Beach County House district on Tuesday, Democrats have now flipped four state legislative seats this year. In 32 races this year, Democratic candidates swung districts left by an average of 10.9 points compared to the 2024 presidential election, according to data collected by the political website The Downballot.

If Democrats are, on average, swinging districts by 10 points or more, why did Nathan’s lead still come as a surprise?

A massive fundraising gap

Tomkow, who until Monday represented part of Polk County in the state House, had a formidable war chest. Five days out from the election, she reported more than $1.3 million in contributions between her personal account and a political committee, Friends of Josie Tomkow.

“This was a real David versus Goliath” in terms of resources, Castor said.

Nathan had raised about $120,000 by that same date.

“My god, it was a nightmare being outspent,” said Hillsborough County Democratic Hispanic Caucus president Victor Rudy DiMaio, who volunteered for Nathan’s campaign. “It does have an influence.”

Rebecca Heimstead, a 79-year-old retiree in New Tampa, said she votes in every election for Democrats on the ballot. But she didn’t know a special election was happening until she began to see TV ads from Tomkow three or four times a day.

“We got overwhelmed with Tomkow’s ads,” Heimstead said. “I never saw a single thing about (Nathan). I didn’t know his name, and I did no investigation of him” before she filled in his name on the ballot.

Jackson McMillan is a political consultant and CEO of Key Lime Strategies, which helps raise small-dollar donations for Democratic candidates. He said friends and family in District 14 reported a similar trend. They learned of the election through Tomkow’s ads.

Nathan “is a great candidate, and nobody knew who he was,” McMillan said.

That Nathan swung the district left is likely a testament to the national mood, McMillan said.

“This was a resolution on the president,” he said.

Third-party voters likely made the difference

What turnout numbers failed to convey is how third-party voters cast their ballots.

Assuming most Democrats voted for Nathan, he would have had to net three-quarters of third-party voters and potentially some Republicans to reach his vote total, McMillan said.

The day before the election, Nathan acknowledged that outsize Republican turnout in early in-person voting and mail-in ballots was “concerning.” But he put his faith in the third-party voters he had tried to sway.

“I have people coming up to me telling me ‘My five Republican family members, they all voted for you,’” he said.

The shift left compared to 2024 was especially acute in more-Hispanic precincts. In majority-Hispanic neighborhoods, the shift left was 13 percentage points. In majority-white neighborhoods, it was seven points.

DiMaio credited Nathan’s gains in those majority-Hispanic neighborhoods to furor against Trump’s mass deportation efforts. Spanish-speaking volunteers also canvassed those neighborhoods in support of Nathan, he said.

“You didn’t see it in mailboxes or on TV,” DiMaio said. “But you got a friendly face who spoke Spanish knocking at your door.”

Democrats didn’t prevail across the board on Tuesday. Republican Hilary Holley won by eight points against her Democratic challenger in Tomkow’s former Polk County district. Still, Edwin Perez, the Democratic challenger, swung the district five points left compared to Harris’ 2024 performance.

Evan Power, chair of the Republican Party of Florida, said special elections are a different environment than the midterms in November because they tend to have lower turnout from more engaged voters.

“We have seen this before; special elections are just that: special,” he said in a statement posted on X Wednesday. “It is not indicative of what can be expected in a general election.”

More than a quarter of eligible voters in Senate District 14 came out for Tuesday’s special election. In comparison, during the 2022 midterms, more than half of eligible Hillsborough County voters cast their ballots.

But the Florida Democratic Party is touting Tuesday’s results to build momentum for November.

“My message to Republicans is this: Your district is in danger,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said in a press call Wednesday.

______

(Times data editor Langston Taylor contributed to this report.)

©2026 Tampa Bay Times. Visit at tampabay.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.